The movie industry can be an unpredictable place, but studios pay a lot of money for clever people to make sense of it all. Two of those organizations, NRG and The Quorum, have delivered their expectations for The Marvels and, if they’re right, it might be a rough holiday season for Marvel Studios. Predictions for the next MCU superhero flick are currently between $72 million and $90 million domestically for its opening.

This would be a pretty healthy take for most films, but it is down from the $150 million that 2019’s Captain Marvel took in its opening weekend. Of course, Captain Marvel didn’t have to contend with an ongoing actor’s strike that prohibits talent from promoting films. This restriction has caused havoc with studios for months now and shows no signs of stopping in time for The Marvels’ 10 November premiere. The MCU is also in a noticeable lull now, with The Marvels due to be the 33rd film in its remarkable run, which could have resulted in less public excitement from the film.

It is important to note that these figures are not based on the quality of the film. Instead, they look at the public’s awareness ahead of release and crunch a lot of numbers to give a general prediction of what the movie will do in its first few days in theaters. They are used by studios to judge how effective their marketing campaign has been. Good word of mouth after its release can generate lots of interest from cinema-goers, but it is looking unlikely that The Marvels will repeat Captain Marvel’s $1 billion run.

What other Marvel projects could be impacted by the actor’s strike? We’ve got every upcoming MCU project that is part of their current slate of releases.